Geo-Strategy END: Psychohistory (The Science of Imagining the Future)

Jiang Xue QinApr 10, 2026

Societies often collapse not from external wars or economic debt, but from an "overproduction of elites" who, like the failed *Ke Ju* candidates in Imperial China, vie for finite power and destabilize the social order. This counterintuitive insight from Peter Turchin's Clio Dynamics underpins a bold vision: using artificial intelligence to develop "psychohistory," a mathematical model capable of predicting human societal patterns and potentially steering humanity away from predicted disasters like a catastrophic US-Iran war or global climate collapse. The central question remains whether such a system can truly account for unpredictable human agency and "great men" who defy statistical models, or if it will become just another tool for control.