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Geo-Strategy: Predicting the Future

Geo-Strategy #11: The Second American Civil War

Jiang Xue QinJiang Xue QinApr 16, 2026

Four of the world's five most powerful air forces are branches of the United States military—the Air Force, Navy, Army, and Marines—dwarfing all other nations save Russia at third place. This staggering over-militarization reflects a deeper American affinity for violence, a trait embedded in its historical conflicts from the 1776 Revolution to its deadliest war, the 1861 Civil War, which claimed up to a million lives. Today, with national narratives crumbling, institutions losing all credibility, and profound societal divisions deepening, this inherent inclination for violent resolution threatens to ignite a second, far more chaotic civil war. Can a nation so steeped in conflict find a path to unity when its foundational bonds are dissolving?

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