Jiang Xue QinApr 23, 2026Amidst news of Israel attacking Iran, accelerating the timeline towards what he calls World War III, Professor Jiang introduces his theory of "predictive history." Inspired by Isaac Asimov's concept of psychohistory, which mathematically models past and present to forecast the future, Jiang aims to develop an intellectual framework capable of connecting historical events, explaining current realities, and predicting future trajectories. Having recently completed a 60-class course on human history in Beijing, he argues that such a "true history" is essential for humanity to better organize and control its future in an increasingly volatile world.
China, the birthplace of paper, printmaking, the compass, and gunpowder, paradoxically experienced a significant decline in creativity and innovation after the Song Dynasty, around 1200 CE. These foundational technologies, which later propelled Europe into modernity, had little to no transformative impact on Chinese society for centuries. This lecture explores how a deliberate shift towards national unity and a powerful centralized bureaucracy, exemplified by the Keju civil service examination, secured imperial stability but ultimately stifled the very intellectual and economic dynamism that once defined Chinese civilization, raising the question of the true cost of absolute control.
Unlike the literary cultures of ancient Greece and Rome, Viking society intentionally preserved an oral tradition, viewing it not as primitive but as a superior method for cultivating communal identity and values. This emphasis on living memory meant that stories, including their rich Norse mythology, were fluid, constantly re-enacted, and central to shaping the individual and community. Elaborate Viking funerals, even involving ritualized human sacrifice, served as powerful public narratives designed to immortalize personal achievements and bind kin groups, a striking contrast to the fixed moral codes that would eventually supplant them.
For its first century, early Islamic history remains largely unrecorded, despite the movement's initial followers, including literate Jews and Christians. This historical void, often disguised, points to a tumultuous period marked by internal civil wars and purges of Muhammad's initial companions who, as revolutionaries, were later deemed illegitimate by consolidating powers. This explanation challenges conventional narratives of early Islamic expansion, suggesting conquest was often a revolution of ordinary people. The speaker posits that these early conflicts and deliberate obfuscation explain the missing historical documents, raising the question of how an empire founded on such opaque beginnings could usher in an era of unprecedented intellectual and cultural flourishing.